Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC) I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC) July 03E.BLAS AOI: Off southern coast of Mexico Models are rather consistent in developing an area of low pressure off the southern Mexican coast in less than 240 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:17, June 21, 2016 (UTC) :Question is when, not if this develops. All global models agree on a broad tropical system near Socorro Island, but perhaps due to its large size, the EPS is rather uncertain on when this actually gets going, but they've been trending towards an early July development. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 19:56, June 25, 2016 (UTC) :::This is now on the TWO at 20% for 5 days, but near 0% for two. Assuming it doesn't become Agatha by July 1, we're going to have the latest first named storm ever in the EPac proper. 'Ryan1000' 02:58, June 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::0/50. GFS insists this will become a Cat 5, but the ECMWF shows a TS with this system and one to its left. Even on track the ECMWF/EPS/UKMET are all over the place, ranging from a system tracking W to a system threatening Socorro Island. GFS of all the models seem to most consistent with track and intensify, but it's the GFS and when the GFS and ECMWF disagree, the ECMWF is almost always right. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:58, June 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It'll probably become Agatha by the weekend or early next week, but however strong it gets out to sea, it won't be affecting land aside from surf regardless. 'Ryan1000' 03:04, June 29, 2016 (UTC) :::::::60 percent for 5 days now. Yup, this might actually be Agatha soon. Still 0 for 24 hours, though. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, '''IbAHAn1829']] \Chat/ 23:22, June 29, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::Agatha should be coming from this AOI by the weekend or so. Since it is not expected to significantly develop until after Friday, looks like we may see our latest first named storm ever recorded for this basin (not counting CPac). The EPac, and the Pacific as a whole, has seen an insanely slow start to their seasons. The WPac is also about to see their latest first named storm after June 30, beating 1973. ''St''''eve'' 00:54, June 30, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::: I'm confident this system will form into Agatha, and it also seems likely that it could be a hurricane, maybe even a strong one. I don't think a category 4 is out of the question with this AOI. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 04:16, June 30, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::After days of flip flooping, the ECMWF has finally hoped onto the GFS bandwagon and shows a monster hurricane that will likely rack up some big time ACE. Fueled by a CCKW/MJO episode, the GFS last few runs has brought this to sub-925 mbar. Fortunately, the only land impacts will be high surf, as the storm will move westward before recurving out to sea. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 06:55, June 30, 2016 (UTC) 94E.INVEST Invest'd and up to 30/80. Agatha is coming this weekend, and it will be the latest first named storm on record. I predict a potential major hurricane from this storm. It's been such a long wait... [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 19:44, June 30, 2016 (UTC) :Models backing off a bit in terms of intensity as the GFS brings this much further north than earlier. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 22:15, June 30, 2016 (UTC) :The 18z Gfs now brings Agatha to just mininal strength, The Euro is also showing a lower end ts now. Even though this run disappoint me, I actually believe this might become a cat 1 or cat 2 storm.It has been so boring lately that even with a cat 1 I will be happy.Allanjeffs 05:23, July 1, 2016 (UTC) :latest GFS run makes this a hawaii threat in the long range. --'Hurricane ' 15:24, July 1, 2016 (UTC) ::I hope we see at least a hurricane from this, as long as it spares Hawaii from impacts. It's still 30/80, and development is going to be slow over the weekend, but it should become a TD early next week, [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 19:52, July 1, 2016 (UTC) :::It's now 60/90. Unless, for some reason, TD 2 doesn't strengthen enough to be named, this one should be Blas. I still hope for a potential hurricane from this. ''St''''eve'' 06:17, July 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::It's 80/90. Should be a TD by tonight or tomorrow, and become Blas. ''St''''eve'' 18:05, July 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::I hear the EURO model makes almost Blas a pretty strong hurricane. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|��Sincerely, IbAHAn1829⛅]] \��Chat/ 19:02, July 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::GFS and ECMWF have a Cat 2/3 but this could be a bit stronger if the SHIPS shear forecasts verify. Anyhow, this is a TD at this point and the latest TWO has it at 100/100 so I'd be shocked if they didn't declare this at 3z. As for track, the ECMWF bridges the mid-level ridge near Baja and the large one over the N Pacific, keeping the storm south, while the upper-level low that pulls it NW gradually tracks west and weakens. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the upper level low strong and moves it north, so the storm follows suit and recurves out to sea and eventually affects the Western US after merging with a frontal zone. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:18, July 3, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three-E It's here. Forecast brings it up to a minimal major with winds of 100 knots. Let's hope this materialises... ~ 'KN2731' {talk} 03:31, July 3, 2016 (UTC) : It might even go above that, cat 4 isn't out of the question here given the favorable conditions. 'Ryan1000' 04:02, July 3, 2016 (UTC) :: From NHC discussion 1: "The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant moisture." I won't be surprised if this thing goes to cat 5. The only limiting factor is how fast it can develop an inner core. ~ 'KN2731' {talk} 08:26, July 3, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Blas Now named by NHC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:01, July 3, 2016 (UTC) : Cat 5's are rare in the Atlantic and East Pacific, even moreso in July. Only 3 category 5 Pacific hurricanes have ever formed during July, Emilia and Gilma in 1994 and Elida in 2002. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a 4, but a 5 might be pushing it. 'Ryan1000' 11:09, July 3, 2016 (UTC) :: Hold the phone, since when did the eastern Pacific get active? [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, '''IbAHAn1829']] \Chat/ 14:02, July 3, 2016 (UTC) :::: Since just recently. Btw, Blas is at 60 mph now, he might become a hurricane before the day is out. Looks really well-organized as of now. Ryan1000 14:45, July 3, 2016 (UTC) ::::: This is better than I imagined, maybe even C4 isn't even out of the question now... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 17:26, July 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::: It says Blas is 65 mph and 1001 mbar. A hurricane should come tomorrow or tonight. I hope for a major c3+ :) ''St''''eve'' 02:51, July 4, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Blas Now 65 kt/994 mbar. CIMSS at T4.5/77 kt. -- 14:57, July 4, 2016 (UTC) :Blas is really intensifying quickly, and Blas is also personally one of my favorite names in the EPac basin.TG 16:56, July 4, 2016 (UTC) ::To me, the name seems a little strange, though I like it as well. It's finally strengthening again; 85 mph and 984 mbar as of the most recent advisory. ''St''''eve'' 02:50, July 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::Blas is looking a lot better now, the NHC expects Blas to become a major hurricane for a little longer now, but the peak intensity is still kept at 120 mph. Wouldn't surprise me if it gets stronger though. Ryan1000 03:38, July 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::::100 mph/978 mbars now. Due to become a major hurricane later today. Ryan1000 12:19, July 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::The latest satellite image shows a pretty nice eye within Blas. Plus, it looks more annular now than it did before. Plus, I don't know if it will reach C4, though, I put the peak at 125 mph at the most. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|��Sincerely, IbAHAn1829⛅]] \��Chat/ 12:58, July 5, 2016 (UTC) : Raw T# from CIMSS at 6.5! I think its 105 or 110 kt, could become a strong Cat4 before it weakens. Cat5 may also be not out of question if it continues to intensify. 14:03, July 5, 2016 (UTC) : :: Now 95 kt/970 mbar and may be conservative. 14:57, July 5, 2016 (UTC) :::I think a Category 5 would be really pushing it. This might only peak at 150 mph.TG 18:08, July 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::This isn't going anywhere near Cat 5. This will peak at around 125 tops in 24-36 hours then weaken as it moves WNW and slowly rounds the edge of a ridge before turning north as it is influenced by a cutoff low. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 18:39, July 5, 2016 (UTC) EP, 03, 2016070518, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1203W, 105, 958, HU, 18z BT has it as a major. --'Hurricane ' 19:12, July 5, 2016 (UTC) :Probably best to wait until the NHC makes it official to put in a new header. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:30, July 5, 2016 (UTC) Major Hurricane Blas Now official from the NHC. 110 kts, 954 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:45, July 5, 2016 (UTC) What a beautiful looking hurricane, and it's supposed to stay away from land and reach 140 MPH. This is what I like to see. Leeboy100Hello! 21:46, July 5, 2016 (UTC) : Blas is currently quite impressive on satellite; I hope it's a Category 4 soon. It could be one on the next advisory though, considering that it is 125 mph now. Blas is only forecast to remain a major until about Thursday morning, so I'd be shocked if it became a C5. Still, this is amazing and impressive. Especially since it is not going to threaten land. Powerful hurricanes that don't threaten land are the best, IMO. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 00:21, July 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: 140 mph/947 mbars now. Forecast to hit 150 before weakening. Ryan1000 05:40, July 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: It never did. Now down to Category three.[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \:-D''Chat''/''Ta ta!'' 11:18, July 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Oh well, guess it's time to start saying goodbye to Blas from here on out. Ryan1000 14:24, July 6, 2016 (UTC) :::::::This should remain a major hurricane for another day or so, since shear is low. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:15, July 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::It's still 125 mph as of the latest advisory. Blas is persisting, but should continue its weakening trend tomorrow and beyond. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 04:36, July 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::The current strength is set at 120 mph/958 mbar. It should weaken below major status by tonight. ''St''''eve'' 18:57, July 7, 2016 (UTC) 02E.AGATHA AOI: Northwest of 94E There's a new, 10/10 system slightly northwest of 94E. This likely won't become anything. ''St''''eve'' 19:54, June 30, 2016 (UTC) : The AOI made me eat my words. It's now 40/40, and could have a slight shot before environmental conditions become less favorable. It's possible this could end up like one of those June busts. ''St''''eve'' 19:55, July 1, 2016 (UTC) 95E.INVEST Wow it's 70/70 now...It looks like that other system may be BLAS, and this may be a weak Agatha... ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 20:26, July 1, 2016 (UTC) :I doubt T numbers get high enough for this to warrant an upgrade to TS, unless some inner core features develop. With that said, this is a TD for sure. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 20:40, July 1, 2016 (UTC) ::This is surprising. o_o At this point, I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD by 8 P.M. PDT. It even looks like one on satellite imagery. This might be the actual Agatha, and the 30/80 one might just be Blas. The weirdness in the 2016 tropics won't quit, lol. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 21:02, July 1, 2016 (UTC) :::It's 80/80 now and NHC said advisories could be initiated tonight. It looks like a TD on satellite imagery. I think TD 2-E is coming at 11PM EDT. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 00:01, July 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-E We have TD 2-E. Expected to become TS Agatha briefly and peak as a 40 mph TS. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 02:36, July 2, 2016 (UTC) : Woah, this was surprising. If I had to guess whether this or the system behid this would become something first, I would not have guessed this one. Still, it became Two-E on July 2nd, so if it becomes Agatha it'll still be the latest date for the first named storm in the EPac proper. Ryan1000 03:55, July 2, 2016 (UTC) :: This really organized FAST! Agatha could come at this rate, even if it will just be a weakling. I remember thinking the other system would be TD Two, but this attention-seeker had to do it first. :P We are now going to get our latest first named storm ever in the EPac basin. The WPac still hasn't produced a named (JTWC/JMA, not PAGASA) storm :O! Basically shows how pathetic the whole Pacific has been this year. The Atlantic is looking fun this year, but I'm focused here because the Atlantic hasn't got anything interesting right now. ''St''''eve'' 06:13, July 2, 2016 (UTC) :::This is close to a TS. Agatha is finally coming (1.5 months late). And the WPac is supposed to foster a typhoon within the week; JMA has it as a TD already and JTWC has issued a TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:55, July 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Agatha Agatha is here. 40 mph, 1005 mbar. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 14:53, July 2, 2016 (UTC) :Finally... TG 14:58, July 2, 2016 (UTC) ::It took a long time for Agatha to come... Maybe the system was aware of the inactivity streak and decided to become a named storm before the other one did. Forecast to reach 45 mph before weakening under increasingly unfavorable conditions. ''St''''eve'' 18:03, July 2, 2016 (UTC) :::Wow, you serious Agatha? You seriously took THAT long to even form? And you wanna be a fail? Wow, you're even worse than even Beryl...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|Sincerely, IbAHAn1829]] \Chat/ 18:57, July 2, 2016 (UTC) :::I was almost sure this one was going to be Agatha because this one is much smaller than the other invest so it was able to strength faster. Many models are prediction Blas, Celia and maybe Darby, so we are for sure going to be entertain with the Epac. Models are also showing a big monster of typhoon going into Taiwan and Korea. Btw we didnt break Ava s record for what is worth. Allanjeffs 21:05, July 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::Sometimes a weak TS is better than nothing. Either way, we'll get a few strong hurricanes these next couple weeks so might as well get to track something different before hand. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:15, July 3, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Yeah, after being silent for so long, the EPac is finally ramping up and the WPac could finally get something too. Allan, Agatha technically formed as a tropical depression a day later than Ava, but Ava reached tropical storm strength later in the day on July 2nd than Agatha did. But the NHC counted the latter as the official record, so Agatha is the second-latest after Ava. Also, because Agatha is moving over unfavorable conditions first, 3-E (Blas to-be) could become much stronger. NHC forecasts a major from it even though it's just a depression for now. Neither will affect land, so they'll be nice to track. 'Ryan1000' 04:00, July 3, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Agatha looks like it peaked at 45 mph/1003 mbars. It's now down to 40 mph/1005 mbars and will weaken further. It failed. But at least it gave us our 1st named storm a little faster than it otherwise would have been (if this didn't develop, Blas would have been Agatha instead). Hopefully Agatha does better in 2022. We also see a potentially strong Nepartak in the WPac happening right now. The Pacific's huge quiet streak is FINALLY over. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 02:45, July 4, 2016 (UTC) 18z best track has it as a TD. not shure if PTC yet --'Hurricane ' 20:06, July 4, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Agatha Confirmed by NHC, Agatha should die soon. Ryan1000 01:45, July 5, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Agatha It's dead now. I'd have to say that Agatha is a fail. But at least it ended the inactivity streak a little earlier than it otherwise would have been. ''St''''eve'' 02:48, July 5, 2016 (UTC) 04E.NONAME AOI: Southwest of Mexico A new one popped up on the TWO. At 0/20 for now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:38, July 3, 2016 (UTC) :Now it's 40% for 5 days. We could see Celia here. ''St''''eve'' 02:57, July 4, 2016 (UTC) ::Models develop this into a hurricane moving out to sea. They also show possible Darby and Estelle (the former may threaten Baja California). ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:57, July 4, 2016 (UTC) ::::This actually may be a threat to Hawaii in the long run, since it's likely to follow a more westerly track than Blas and Agatha. Btw, this is now at 70% for 5 days. Ryan1000 01:45, July 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::Here comes Celia. Hopefully Hawaii is spared, though. ''St''''eve'' 02:51, July 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Now 80% for 5 days. Celia is coming... Ryan1000 12:21, July 5, 2016 (UTC) 96E.INVEST invested! --'Hurricane ' 20:13, July 5, 2016 (UTC) : It is 40/90, currently. Yep, Celia is coming soon. ''St''''eve'' 00:24, July 6, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four-E Debut advisory pins it at 30 kts/1007 mbar. Unless something unexpected happens, here comes Celia... only five days after the EPAC proper's second-latest start on record. Nothing for 1.5 months, and then three storms in a week :D --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:07, July 6, 2016 (UTC) : Celia is certainly going to come from this TD. The forecast currently makes it a hurricane by the weekend. I think there's a slight shot of us getting a major from to-be Celia. The EPac has exploded, for sure! ''St''''eve'' 04:39, July 7, 2016 (UTC) :: It's in no hurry to strengthen. I hope we see Celia later today. ''St''''eve'' 18:55, July 7, 2016 (UTC) ::::Will likely remain a TD or weak TS for another 36 hours, but if this can avoid Blas's cold wake, this will become our 2nd major. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:19, July 8, 2016 (UTC) AOI:South of Mexico AOI:South of Mexico Another area of invest is expected to form south of Mexico by early next week, and is at 20% for 5 days. Looks like we're going to be seeing Darby down the road. 'Ryan1000' 16:25, July 7, 2016 (UTC) : I predict we could see Darby from this next week. It's funny how the Pacific has exploded but the Atlantic wants to be completely inactive at the same time, the total opposite of June. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 18:52, July 7, 2016 (UTC) :::Monsoon trough has moved from the ATL to the EPAC. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:22, July 8, 2016 (UTC)